CNR-ISAC Weather Forecast
GLOBO - BOLAM - MOLOCH models
The numerical modeling group MODAT at ISAC has developed in the course of the years several numerical models for the study of atmospheric circulation and composition, with the primary purpose of studying the physical mechanisms that regulate them. At the same time, we are involved in the forecast of meteorological conditions, transport of pollutants and air quality, both as a testbed of our understanding and for its relevance for society at large.
The forecasting suite presented in these pages is used for real-time weather forecast, including a monthly ensemble forecast, as part of an agreement with the National Civil Protection Department (DPCN). The ensemble probabilistic monthly prediction is entered in the database of the WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP joint project Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) at ECMWF.
The forecast can be reached from the maps or the buttons above. All times are given as UTC, local time for Italy is UTC+1 (winter) or UTC+2 (summer). For more details click on the models' names.
The global model GLOBO is run for seven days ahead from the 00 UTC analysis of the GFS model of NOAA-NCEP. The GFS analysis and subsequent forecasts are also used for initial and boundary conditions of a 72 hours forecast on the Euro-Mediterranean area with the BOLAM model, and finally a 45 hours run of the non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH, nested in BOLAM, is done over Italy alone.
The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) field over the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea is derived from the operational product of the MyOcean project of CNR-ISAC, and, for the global ocean, from the OSTIA project of the UK MetOffice.
Be aware that: 1) The skill of the forecasts degrades with increasing lead time 2) Near-surface fields (2m temp and 10m wind) suffer from low-resolution orography and imperfect representation of fog.
ISAC is providing this data "as is", and ISAC cannot be held responsible, nor assume any liability for any damages caused by inaccuracies in this data or documentation, or as a result of the failure of the data or software to function in a particular manner. ISAC makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or utility of this information, nor does the fact of distribution constitute a warranty. Data have not been subjected to quality control or quality assurance procedures.
Contact: dinamica-at-isac.cnr.it (replace -at- with @)
This work by CNR-ISAC is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.