Seminars

ABSTRACT

The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) mission is to provide 21st Century water cycle science, technology, and outreach to support effective policies and practices that address the impacts of extreme weather and water events on the environment, people, and the economy of Western North America. To fulfill its mission, CW3E scientists and engineers develop predictive capabilities based on physics-based, deep learning, and data-driven models. Those generate accurate and reliable estimates of precipitation and other atmospheric and hydrologic variables and are utilized by water managers across the Western US for reservoir operations, as part of the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Program. The goal is to maximize the water supply and reduce the risk of flooding, for an effective climate adaptation strategy. We will describe these prediction methods, which include a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model tailored for the prediction of extreme weather associated with atmospheric rivers over the Western US (West-WRF), a 200-member ensemble at 9-km based on West-WRF, and a deep learning algorithm applied in a postprocessing framework to the 200-member ensemble. We will also present a recently developed, high-resolution (6-km), artificial intelligence (AI) data-driven weather model. We will discuss its ability to learn the underlying physical processes and how it can be used to generate very large ensembles (+1000 members), to better sample the tails of the distribution and more reliably predict extreme weather.

SHORT BIO

Dr. Luca Delle Monache is the Director of Research of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. Dr. Delle Monache oversees the research and development of the Center’s modeling, data assimilation, postprocessing, artificial intelligence, hydrology, subseasonal and seasonal, and supercomputing capabilities, with the goal of maintaining state-of-the-art models and tools while actively exploring innovative algorithms and approaches. In close coordination with the Center Director and the management team, he develops new scientific and programmatic strategies to maintain and further expand CW3E leadership on understanding, observing, and predicting extreme events in Western North America and other regions across the world. His interests include predicting extreme weather and water events via numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, artificial intelligence, and the design of ensemble methods for probabilistic prediction and uncertainty quantification. He has also made several contributions to renewable energy and air quality. He earned an M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Rome, Italy, an M.S. in Meteorology from San Jose State University, U.S., and a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of British Columbia, Canada.

ONLINE

Abstract

Understanding the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is crucial for the sustainable management of aquifers. Numerical models assist regulatory agencies in licensing decisions, but they rely on estimates of recharge fluxes that can be highly uncertain. Furthermore, management strategies in response to climate change face challenges such as the lack of empirical data to validate predicted changes or backing up processes that are not entirely understood.

By applying multiple estimation methods, using the data collected at seven locations in Western Australia, we emphasize the importance of deploying monitoring stations based on different sensor typologies. We delve into the biophysical processes that dictate the mechanism of groundwater recharge and highlight how the climatic variables and the vegetation response influence the dynamics and characteristics of wetting fronts. 

The insights obtained from this type of station can be utilised to understand the effect of diverse land uses, soil types, and climatic drivers on recharge and evapotranspiration fluxes. Estimates can then be benchmarked against broader observations, such as data provided by remote sensing or borewell measurements, while quantifying different sources of uncertainty (e.g. methodological or epistemic), generating robust databases useful for water resources models.

Bio

Simone is a Marie Curie research fellow at the DAGRI within the Universita' di Firenze and CNR - ISAC in Bologna. He spent 4 years at UWA in Perth after completing a joint PhD between Monash University in Melbourne and CSIRO Land & Water. With an international background in Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering (University of Pisa - Italy ), and a PhD in civil engineering (Monash and CSIRO), his experience spans hydrology, numerical modelling, field data collection, quantitative hydrology, remote sensing and model-data fusion techniques. He is passionate about water, vegetation and their intricate connection in the natural and built environment.

Link: https://meet.goto.com/932307501

Abstract
Biosphere-Atmosphere interactions represent the feedback processes between plant (and organisms functioning) and atmosphere processes as these relate to carbon and water cycles. While these bio-physical processes are becoming better understood, the role of the biosphere, namely biodiversity in terms of composition and functioning remains poorly understood. The development of remote sensing sensors, data and techniques has now enabled us to not only assess change in land cover and its change, but also obtain information on plant traits and proxies of biodiversity fundamental for biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and assessing the role of human activities. In this presentation I will show (i) recent advancements of remote sensing to measure biodiversity and plant traits, (ii) the potential effect of changes in plant traits on fundamental water variables that determine moisture recycling flows, and (iii) how moisture recycling is fundamental to the maintenance of the Amazon and the regulation of our global climate system.

Bio
Maria is a Professor in Earth System Sciences at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. She holds a doctoral degree in Ecology from the University of California Davis. Her research asks questions around the co-evolution of social-ecological systems, a fundamental step to place Earth System Sciences in the context of the Anthropocene. Her approach is interdisciplinary, and observes, describes, measures drivers and their impact, and models the interactions and feedbacks between Earth System spheres and the human system.

IT
Maria è docente di Earth System Science presso l'Università di Zurigo, in Svizzera. Ha conseguito un dottorato in Ecology presso l'Università della California Davis. La sua ricerca riguarda la coevoluzione dei sistemi socio-ecologici, un aspetto fondamentale per studiare le Scienze del Sistema della Terra nel contesto dell'Antropocene. Segue un approccio interdisciplinare, attraverso l'osservazione, descrizione e misura dei driver e del loro impatto, e la modellizzazione di interazioni e feedback tra le componenti del Sistema Terra e il sistema umano.

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Abstract - In general usage, ‘storylines’ are causal explanations which help to make sense of a real or imagined situation or sequence of events. They are distinguished from predictions by the incorporation of contingent (i.e. unpredictable) causal factors. Storylines have an obvious power in literature and drama. But they have a pedigree in science too, notably in natural history. Recently, storylines have become an accepted tool within climate science, defined by the IPCC as “a self-consistent and plausible unfolding of a physical trajectory of the climate system, or a weather or climate event, on time scales from hours to multiple decades”. In this talk, I will discuss the rationale behind physical climate storylines, some of the ways in which they have been used to make sense of climate change in situations involving deep (i.e., hard-to-quantify) uncertainty, and some of the questions which keep cropping up whenever I talk about storylines.

Bio - https://research.reading.ac.uk/meteorology/people/ted-shepherd/

Link to join the seminar online - https://meet.goto.com/932307501

Abstract

Water vapor, clouds and precipitations: exploiting remote sensing and machine learning 
to better understand the atmospheric water cycle
In a changing climate a thorough understanding of the water cycle and especially the local availability of water resources is crucial. This holds especially for desert areas where often very view measurements are available. Modern remote sensing techniques and in particular recent satellite launches provide unique possibilities to study water vapor, clouds and precipitation from the satellite perspective. However, satellite measurements are especially challenging close to the surface calling for ground-based and airborne measurements to allow a complete assessment. With more and more data from observations but also high-resolution modelling intelligent methods are necessary to extract the essential information. 

The talk will start with an introduction to the Center for Earth Observation and Computational Analysis (CESOC; hcesoc.net) which has been founded between the Universities of Bonn and Cologne and the Research Center Jülich. CESOC drives the integration of Earth System Science with Computer Science and connects the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), specifically its Bonn location. Next I will give a short overview on the activities of the Atmospheric Water Cycle and Remote Sensing (AWARES) group before providing specific example from two “dry” regions: 1) The Arctic where the strongest changes in the coupled climate system are observed and studied within the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) “Arctic Amplification”, 2) The Atacama desert, the driest place on Earth whose evolution is investigated within the CRC “Earth at the dry limit” and where the westward located stratocumulus deck seems to be connected to a region of cooling opposite to the global trend. 

Bio

Link to join the seminar online https://meet.goto.com/932307501

The Atlantic Ocean Circulation, in particular its zonally averaged component called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is one of the tipping elements in the climate system. The AMOC is sensitive to freshwater perturbations and may undergo a transition towards a climate disrupting state under continuing greenhouse gas emissions. In this presentation, I will discuss the current state of knowledge on AMOC tipping behavior, with focus on the analysis of recent Earth System Model simulation results.

Prof. dr. ir. H.A. (Henk) Dijkstra

Link to join the seminar online: https://meet.goto.com/932307501

An anomaly is something that occurs rarely, something that has very different characteristics compared to what surrounds it. It is something circumscribed, limited, specific, something to be sought with constancy, attention, and care. An anomaly is not expected to be everywhere.

When an anomaly becomes omnipresent, it means that reality has changed radically, which is how climate change has revealed itself to scientists.

For many decades, climate scientists have been engaged in an odyssey through time and space to try to understand the climate of our planet. They observe, collect, record, search, analyze, imagine. Across continents, countries, remote and crowded places, ecosystems of all sizes and types, and various depths and altitudes—from ocean floors to mountain tops and even outer space. They search. And they find. They find anomalies. Wherever a scientist has tried to understand the evolution of our current climate, whatever variable they analyzed, the result has been to find anomalies.

A ubiquitous anomaly.

Through the often-unseen challenges and triumphs of scientific endeavor, “Ubiquitous Anomaly” reveals the essence of Earth’s climate and the urgency of climate change in a photographic documentary exploring Europe, the Americas and Africa. A call to see, feel, and understand the monumental efforts behind the fight against climate change, a central topic in any discussion on the future of our planet.

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Fabio Cian (b. 1982) is an Italian documentary photographer and scientist, currently based in Washington, DC, USA.

His photographic and scientific research lies at the intersection of the human and natural worlds. His work focuses on global phenomena driven by anthropogenic forces, currently centered on climate science and climate change issues. In particular, he is interested in the scientific activities and practices underlying the study of Earth's climate. His working method is rooted in scientific research.

After earning a master's degree in Space Engineering (Sapienza University, Rome) and a PhD in Climate Change Science and Management (Ca' Foscari University, Venice), he obtained a certificate in Visual Storytelling from the International Center of Photography in New York.

He has published several articles in top scientific journals and exhibited his photographic works in international magazines and festivals.

Web site: www.fabiocian.com

Instagram: @cianfabio

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Abstract:

The concept of tipping points helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. Here, we pose that spatial pattern formation can aid complex systems to evade tipping points. Evading tipping points through various pathways may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the AMOC and the entire Earth system.

Short BIO: 

His research and teaching is about Ecology, Environmental Sciences, and current topics on Global Change and Ecosystems. His research concentrates on Spatial Ecology and Global Change.

Ecosystems self-organize into spatial patterns, demonstrating a characteristic of complex systems and resilience. In complex systems, structures at larger scales emerge spontaneously from processes operating at smaller scales. Understanding and modelling these processes enables us to interpret such signals of spatial self-organization in terms of ecosystem’s resilience, tipping points, and its likelihood of critical transitions toward alternate assemblages, guided by new rules and different processes. Also, our research shows that processes and feedbacks at disparate locations and spatial scales are linked, implying feedbacks between ecosystems, earth systems and the (global) climate. This is important in the light of global change, because human survival depends on ecosystem services.

His research has been published in more than 100 articles in international refereed scientific journals, including top journals such as Nature and Science. 
https://www.uu.nl/staff/MGRietkerk

ABSTRACT

Transformations happening in cloud droplets are influenced by light and oxidants and potentially drive atmospheric chemistry more than expected. Photochemical transformations lead to a modification of the composition of the dissolved organic matter. Microorganisms detected in clouds can also alter the chemical composition of droplets by using dissolved organic matter as substrate for their metabolic activity, but the transformation pathways are mostly unknown.
For over 20 years clouds are sampled at the puy de Dôme observatory (France) using a collector specifically designed for high volume sampling. Physico-chemical analysis coupled to backtrajectory calculations enabled to perform statistical study to classify clouds in different classes: highly marine, marine, continental and polluted. Target analysis were developed to quantify the concentration of inorganic compounds, short chain carboxylic acids, amino acids and, more recently, sugars. In parallel, high resolution mass spectrometry has been used to have an overview of cloud organic composition and drive the future research.
The use of FT-ICR mass spectrometry to explore the chemical composition of clouds is a real challenge, because cloud water is a very complex matrix, where the compounds are present in low concentration. This instrument enabled us to identify a few thousand molecular formulas representative of several classes of compounds from primary emissions (lipids, peptides, carbohydrates, unsaturated hydrocarbons), or produced in the clouds by oxidation of organic matter. This instrument has also enabled us to show that the microorganisms present in the clouds are capable of using organic compounds as a substrate for their development, opening up a new research theme.

Short BIO

Angelica Bianco, CNRS researcher at Physical Meteorology Laboratory (LaMP) Clermont Auvergne University, CNRS

After the master’s degree in Environmental Chemistry at the University of Turin (2011-2013), she continued with a PhD in Physical Chemistry at the Institute of Chemistry of Clermont-Ferrand (2013-2016) on photochemical reactivity of organic compounds in cloud water. She continued working on cloud chemistry and microbiology as post-doctoral student between the Physical Meteorology Laboratory (LaMP) and the CEA (Commissariat de l'Energie Atomique) until 2017-2019. She then focused her attention on the development of a methodology for the analysis of nanoplastics at INAR (Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research) (2019-2020). Since 2021 she is researcher at LaMP.

Link https://meet.goto.com/932307501

Abstract

Air pollution was estimated to be responsible for nearly 7 million premature deaths worldwide per year, with the majority of them taking place in low- and middle-income countries. Conversely, the number of air quality studies are often limited in given countries. Bolivia is a country classified as lower-middle income country in which no formal study on the state of air quality was previously performed. In this presentation I will give an overview of the state or atmospheric research in Bolivia, and I will go through the main results of my PhD work which was focused on the characterization of the state of air quality in La Paz-El Alto metropolitan area, and a short summary of the identified pollution sources and their associations with health outcomes.

Link https://meet.goto.com/744170877