Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts

Francesco Marra


I will present a new method for predicting future sub-hourly precipitation extremes based on our physical understanding of the processes. After a background on the measures of extreme precipitation required by hydrologists and decision makers, I will present the TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels (TENAX). I will discuss the theory behind the model and show that it can reproduce extremes with the same accuracy as the benchmark statistical methods. I will show that the model reproduces known properties of the extreme precipitation-temperature scaling relation for which it was not explicitly designed. In hindcast, I will demonstrate that TENAX can predict “future” unseen sub-hourly precipitation extremes only based on projections of daily temperatures. I will close showing example applications of the model to real study cases.
The seminar aims at fostering the discussion with the experts of atmospheric sciences in the institute, with the idea of improving the TENAX model (or disproving it and move toward new perspectives) and potentially establishing new collaborations.

Short bio
Dr. Francesco Marra graduated in Physics at the University of Bologna and got his PhD in Hydrology at the University of Padova. He was Postdoc and Research Associate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) and then Researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR). He is now Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Padova.
His scientific contributions lie in the interface of atmospheric physics, hydrology, geomorphology, climatology and climate change, with special focus on hydrometeorological extremes and related hazards. He is currently interested in the statistical description of extreme precipitation and in its relation with the underlying physical processes.


Bologna, sala riunione ISAC e online