An increase in precipitation extremes is one of the most robust aspects of anthropogenic climate change, but not in the Mediterranean region, where the confidence on the effects of climate change remains low. Italy, in particular, features unclear trends in the intensity of precipitation extremes, with spatially and seasonally dependent signals. Yet, a number of cyclones, i.e intense mid-latitude storms, caused precipitation extremes and considerable economic damage in Italy in the past decade. The extent that climate change has contributed to these events is poorly understood.
The overarching objective of ENCIRCLE is to provide credible, understandable and useful information of how climate change affects the frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation extremes driven by extratropical and Mediterranean cyclones in Italy.