(PDF version)

Tuesday 17 October

08:30 – 09:00
09:00 – 09:45
Antonio Speranza
Welcoming and Opening

Theme 1: Numerical modeling of the atmosphere, ocean and climate

Chair: Antonio Speranza
10:00 – 10:45
Eugenia Kalnay (University of Maryland, USA)
Anna Trevisan: How she influenced me through modeling, predictability and data assimilation
10:45 – 11:15
Andrea Buzzi (ISAC-CNR, Italy)
Dynamics of upper-level atmospheric frontogenesis: a brief review
11:15 – 11:50
Coffee break
11:50 – 12:10
Mario Marcello Miglietta (ISAC-CNR, Italy)
Numerical simulations of a tornado supercell in the Mediterranean
12:10 – 12:30
William Young (Scripps, USA)
Beta-plane turbulence above topography: form stress and eddy saturation
12:30 – 12:50
Seon Ki Park (Ewha Womans University, South Korea)
An improved parametrization of assimilated carbon allocation to plan part in vegetation dynamics for Noah-MP
12:50 – 14:00
Lunch break
Chair: Andrea Buzzi
14:00 – 14:30
Richard Rotunno (NCAR, USA)
Anatomy of the atmospheric Lee-Side Hydraulic Jump
14:30 – 15:00
Paola Cessi (Scripps, USA)
Topographic enhancement of eddy efficiency in baroclinic equilibration
15:00 – 15:20
Antonio Speranza (CINFAI, Italy)
The role of self-interaction in the dynamics of planetary-scale atmospheric fluctuations
15:20 – 15:40
Paolo Ruggieri (University of L’Aquila and CMCC, Italy)
Thermodynamics cycles in the stratosphere
15:40 – 16:20
Coffee break
16:20 – 16:50
Stefano Tibaldi (CMCC, Italy)
Atmospheric blocking in observations and models
16:50 – 17:20
Valerio Lucarini (University of Reading, UK)
Covariant Lyapunov vectors and Lyapunov exponents for atmospheric and oceanic flows
17:20 – 17:40
Franco Prodi (ISAC-CNR, Italy)
Deep Convection and other precipitating systems in Salento with the Torchiarolo Radar of RIVONA Project
17:40 – 20:30
Poster Session with Ice Breaker (wine, chees…)
(Posters will stay displayed during the entire duration of the event)

Wednesday 18 October

Theme 2: Predictability of the atmosphere, ocean and climate

Chair: Eugenia Kalnay
09:00 – 09:45
Michael Ghil (ENS Paris, France and UCLA, USA)
Predictability of the atmosphere, ocean and climate: Anna Trevisan’s contribution and her legacy
09:45 – 10:15
Roberto Benzi (Dept. of Physics, University of Roma “Tor Vergata”, Italy)
From Navier-Stokes to earthquakes
10:15 – 10:35
Laurent Descamps (Météo France, France)
Representing model error in the Météo-France global ensemble prediction system
10:35 – 10:55
Victor Homar Santander (University of Balearic Islands, Spain)
High-resolution EnKF for a medican event: predictability challenges
10:55 – 11:40
Coffee break
11:40 – 12:00
Cheng Qian (Chinese Academy of Science, China)
Three approaches for statistical prediction of non-Gaussian climate extremes
12:00 – 12:20
Roberto Buizza (ECMWF, UK)
How far ahead can we provide skillful forecast?
12:20 – 12:40
Chiara Marsigli (Arpae SIMC, Italy)
Predictability of severe weather phenomena with convective-permitting ensemble
12:40 – 13:40
Lunch buffet
Chair: Michael Ghil
13:40 – 14:10
Stephane Vannitsem (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)
Low frequency variability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system
14:10 – 14:40
Leonard A. Smith (London School of Economy, UK)
Reconsidering the aim of weather prediction, again
14:40 – 15:00
Juan M. Lopez (University of Cantabria, Spain)
Initial perturbations for ensemble prediction systems: the good, the bad and the ugly
15:00 – 15:20
Stefano Pierini (University of Naples, Italy)
Exploring the pullback attractor of a low order quasi-geostrophic model subject to periodic and aperiodic forcing
15:20 – 16:00
Coffee break
16:00 – 16:30
Tim Palmer (Oxford University, UK)
Nonlinear model error and the overspreading of the seasonal forecast ensemble
16:30 – 17:00
Susanna Corti (ISAC-CNR, Italy)
From medium to (quite) extended range predictions over the northern extratropics: some notes
17:00 – 17:20
Annalisa Cherchi (CMCC/INGV, Italy)
The South Asian monsoon and the Mediterranean summer: extreme years and onset
17:20 – 17:40
Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter, UK)
The structure of predictability in an intermediate complexity atmospheric model

Thursday 19 October

Theme 3: Data Assimilation

Chair: Alberto Carrassi
09:00 – 09:45
Olivier Talagrand (LMD/ENS, Paris, France)
Data assimilation and (in)stability
09:45 – 10:15
Francesco Uboldi (ARIANET, Milan, Italy)
Multi-scale error growth and data assimilation in convection-resolving models
10:15 – 10:35
Tse-Chun Chen (University of Maryland, USA)
A Proactive QC to Improve the Quality of Analyses and Forecasts: impact of Anna’s insight
10:35 – 10:55
Cécile Defforge (CEREA, France)
Improving local scale atmospheric simulation using data assimilation
10:55 – 11:30
Coffee break
11:30 – 11:50
Virginia Poli (Arpae-Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima, Italy)
Data assimilation of radar reflectivity volumes in a LETKF scheme
11:50 – 12:10
Isabelle Mirouze (CMCC, Italy)
Handling boundaries with the recursive filter
12:10 – 12:30
Felipe Soares (Proceano Servicio Ocen. e Amb. LTDA, Brasil)
Projeto Azul: Advances in operational oceanography in the Santos Basin using variational data assimilation
12:30 – 13:40
Lunch buffet
Chair: Olivier Talagrand
13:40 – 14:10
Luigi Palatella (Liceo Scientifico “C. de Giorgi”, Lecce, Italy)
Assimilation in the Unstable Space (AUS) and the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF)
14:10 – 14:40
Marc Bocquet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, France)
On the convergence of the (ensemble) Kalman filter and smoother onto the unstable subspace
14:40 – 15:00
Colin Grudzien (NERSC, Norway)
Extending Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace to the presence of additive model error
15:00 – 15:20
Gregory Duane (University of Bergen, Norway)
Data assimilation as synchronization of the truth and model, and inter-model data assimilation as “super-modeling”
15:20 – 16:00
Coffee break
16:00 – 16:20
Geir Evensen (IRIS and NERSC, Norway)
Solving inverse problems by using iterative ensemble smoother
16:20 – 16:40
Olivier Pannekoucke (CNRM and CERFACS, France)
Parametric Kalman filter: toward an alternative to the EnKF?
16:40 – 17:00
Peter Jan van Leeuwen (University of Reading and NCEO, UK)
On the (non-)degeneracy of particle filters
17:00 – 17:20
Alban Farchi (CEREA, France)
Challenges in localizing particle filters

19:30 –
Social Dinner

Friday 20 October

Theme 2 and 3: Predictability and Data Assimilation

Chair: Luigi Palatella
09:30 – 10:00
Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF, UK)
Advancing data assimilation in global NWP: the ECMWF perspective
10:00 – 10:30
Steve Penny (University of Maryland and NCEP, USA)
Hybrid-gain data assimilation and the synchronization of chaotic systems
10:30 – 11:00
Coffee break
11:00 – 11:30
Nadia Pinardi (University of Bologna, Italy)
The large scale steady state and low frequency variability of the Mediterranean Sea circulation
11:30 – 11:50
Patrick Laloyaux (ECMWF, UK)
The ECMWF weak constraint 4D-Var formulation
11:50 – 12:10
Victor Shutyaev (Russian Academy of Science, Russia)
Sensitivity of the optimal solution of variational data assimilation problems
12:10 – 12:30
Ida Maiello (University of Rome “La Sapienza” and CETEMPS, University of L’Aquila, Italy)
Short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts for a flash flood event in central Italy: a comparison between 3DVAR and 4DVAR assimilation methods
12:30 – 12:50
Alberto Carrassi (NERSC, Norway)
Concluding Remarks and Closing


Theme 1: Numerical modeling of the atmosphere, ocean and climate

  1. Giovanni Conti (Hamburg University, Germany)
    Hyperbolic Covariant Coherent Structures in two-dimensional flows
  2. Silvio Davolio (CNR-ISAC, Italy)
    High-resolution modeling studies of heavy precipitation events
  3. Paola de Ruggiero (Dip. di scienze e tecnologie, University di Napoli Parthenope, Italy)
    Modeling the intrinsic variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
  4. Daniele Minganti (BIRA-IASB, Belgium)
    Stratospheric circulation investigated in the WACCM chemistry climate model comparing mean age of air with observations and chemistry transport models driven by reanalyses.
  5. Maria Parfenova (A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)
    1-D nonhydrostatic model (NH3D) simulation of high latitude ABL structure above sea ice edge
  6. Stefano Pierini (Dip. di scienze e tecnologie, University di Napoli Parthenope, Italy)
    Intrinsic aspects of the Kuroshio Extension low-frequency variability revealed by the combined use of numerical modeling and altimeter data
  7. Ignacio Pisso (NILU, Norway)
    Urban greenhouse gas emissions assessment through inverse modeling
  8. Nazario Tartaglione (Uni Research Climate and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway)
    Stratospheric ozone distribution and its influence on the atmospheric circulation

Theme 2: Predictability of the atmosphere, ocean and climate

  1. Nikolay Baranov (Dorodnicyn Computing Center, Russia)
    Space-temporal blending extrapolation of remote sensing temperature data for nowcasting
  2. Alberto Carrassi (NERSC, Norway)
    Probabilistic forecast using a Lagrangian sea-ice model: application for search and rescue operations
  3. Alessandro Comunian (University of Milan, Italy)
    Improving estimates of evaporation with the “Bowen ratio” method
  4. Tanmay Dhar (Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority, India)
    A comprehensive study on dynamic modeling of cloudbursts in Garhwal and Kumaon Himalayas
  5. Maria Fattorini (CNR Ibimet – LaMMA, Italy)
    Application of Singular Values Decomposition and correlation analysis to the design of ocean observation networks
  6. Paolo Ghinassi (Johannes Gutenburg University Mainz, Germany)
    Identification of Rossby wave packets using local finite amplitude wave activity
  7. Andrey Gritsun (Institute of numerical mathematics, Moscow, Russia)
    Instability characteristics of blocking regimes in a simple quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model
  8. Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter, UK)
    Reduced dimension and increased regime predictability in and atmospheric model due to stochastic forcing
  9. Giulio Monte (University of Bologna – DIFA, Arpae-SIMC, Italy)
    Visibility field forecasting using COSMO Model in the Po valley
  10. Anton Sokolov (Laboratoire de PhysicoChimie de l’Atmosphère, Université du Littoral Cote d’Opale, France)
    Analysis of wind profile variations in Mediterranean using radar and reanalysis data

Theme 3: Data Assimilation

  1. Javier Amezcua (University of Reading, UK)
    Properties of ensemble smoothers in the linear-Gaussian case under different types of model error
  2. Ali Aydoğdu (NERSC, Norway)
    Observing System Simulation Experiments in the Marmara Sea
  3. Marc Bocquet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, France)
    Four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation in the unstable subspace
  4. Alberto Carrassi (NERSC, Norway)
    Estimating model evidence with data assimilation: the model selection problem
  5. Alberto Carrassi (NERSC, Norway)
    Data assimilation on non-conservative adaptive grids
  6. Thomas Gastaldo (University of Bologna and Arpae Servizio Meteo-Idro-Clima, Italy)
    Studying the imbalances of analysis fields in a LETKF scheme
  7. Marc Honnorat (EXWEXs, France)
    Data assimilation systems for routine weather forecasts currently use a lot of satellite data
  8. Sergiy Ivanov (Odessa State Environmental University, Ukraina)
    The impact of radar data pre-processing on precipitation simulations in the Harmonie model
  9. Danian Liu (LTO, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science, Guangzhou, China)
    Model-based assessment of mesoscale monitoring capability for a Northwestern Tropical Pacific moored array
  10. Seon Ki Park (Ewha Womans University, South Korea)
    Ensemble Based Data Assimilation for Air Quality Prediction using Synthetic Radiance Observations from Future Geostationary Satellite
  11. Diego Saul Carrio Carrio (University of Balearic Islands, Spain)
    Short-scale data assimilation using EnKF: Impact of conventional and radar data on the prediction of heavy precipitations during Hymex IOP13
  12. Andrea Storto (CMCC, Italy)
    Comparing variational methods aware of model error evolution for long-term ocean applications with OceanVar
  13. Julius Sumihar (Deltares, Netherlands)
    Data assimilation for river water quality forecasting
  14. Guocan Wu (Beijing Normal University, China)
    A study on Soil moisture assimilation based on modified ensemble transform Kalman filter